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What will the new economy look like?

nouvelle économie

The health and economic crises provoked by Covid-19 have acted as a catalyst for a change that was already in the making. Can we sketch the contours of these changes? Will there be a before and after?

It is safe to say that the changes in the world economy have not been seen for nearly a century. The disruptions caused by this earthquake are diverse and affect many sectors. Let’s see together what these reorganisations could be in the short, medium and long term.

In the short term :

The first observation leads us to note a major decrease or even disappearance of certain sectors which, however, did not seem threatened until before the crisis. The main industries that have experienced a cataclysm (rated “group A”) are the following:

Air transport
The automotive industry
Hydrocarbon production
Tourism (hotels and restaurants)
Luxury products

Each of these sectors of activity has been hit hard by the halting of travel and the interruption of human interaction.

The sectors of activity – Group B – had to reinvent themselves in order to continue to operate :
Education
Sporting activities
Entertainment and cultural activity

Some trades have been able to continue to be practiced, but not without problems. Some flexibility had to be deployed to be able to work at a distance, in particular.

The “winners” – Group C – of the new short-term economic situation :
Online sales
Agriculture, food
Video games
Online service companies (e.g. social networks, video on demand, etc.).
Health care
Catering at home
Activities related to existential quests (psychology, spirituality etc.)

What are the effects of this crisis in the medium term?

In the medium term :

Many companies from group A will disappear or will be forced to merge in the case of large companies. The state will continue to play the role of crisis shock absorber only in some countries. Countries that do not have a system of social support for entrepreneurs will see whole sectors of their economies collapse. The most resilient enterprises – either because they have restructured or because they have a large cash position – may in the medium to long term recover in some cases the market shares formerly held by competitors who have subsequently disappeared.
Some sectors will survive as long as the crisis does not last too long – if, for example, an effective vaccine is brought to market quickly. But if the crisis is prolonged, millions of unemployed will join the ranks of those pre-existing before the crisis – so-called structural unemployment.

In the long term

In the case of a disaster scenario, i.e. if the crisis – due in particular to the impossibility of moving from one country to another – were to last 2 or even 3 years, one can imagine a complete restructuring of entire sectors of the economy and the obligation to “retrain” unemployed people to other sectors. It is reasonable to say that the cessation of certain activities and the permanence of others (e.g. food) will lead to a possible qualitative change in the products and services offered by the surviving sectors.

The need to employ unemployed people from group A for group C (the group remaining almost unchanged) may presage certain developments. What does a company that can have small hands to produce more do? The main problem is the level of qualification. It is reasonable to say that “recycled” people will not have the expected level of qualification in most cases given the difference in activity.

The following is a list of jobs with less than one year’s training that can benefit Group C activities and increase the quality of the products and services offered :
Customer support for online sales activities
Organic farmer
Care assistant
Product deliverer
Social network moderator
Cook’s helper
Videographer
Video editor
etc.

Here is a list of jobs with training of between 2 and 3 years that can benefit the activities of group C and allow an increase in the quality of the products and services offered:
Developer
Nurse
Logistician
Cook
Scriptwriter
Graphic designer
Dietician
Yoga teacher
etc.

Here is a list of jobs with training of more than 3 years that can benefit the activities of group C and allow an increase in the quality of the products and services offered :
Doctor
Computer engineer
Nutritionist
Psychologist
Spirit guide

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